Sunday, 15 November 2020

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation Basic – Part II

In a previous article, the basic concepts of DCF valuation such as time value money were discussed (Read more here).  This article will focus on basic concept of Free Cash Flow to Firm and Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE).  There are many ways to compute FCFF and FCFE.  For more detail, you can refer to Professor Damodaran’s slides (Read more here).  This article will only focus on deriving FCFF and FCFE from Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT).

FCFF is not something readily available like Price to Earnings (PE) ratio.  Investors need to compute FCFF from financial data (annual or quarterly report), and then forecast the future FCFF based on their understanding of the company business model, direction, and development.

FCFF can be interpreted as the cash flow available to all the firm’s capital contributors such as debtholders, preferred stockholders and common stockholders, without impacting the firm’s daily operation and future development.

FCFE can be derived from FCFF.  It is the cash flow available to the firm’s common stockholders after the FCFF has accounted for payment (and receipts from) debtholders and preferred stockholders.



Mathematically, FCFF can be computed by

where,

EBIT      = Earnings Before Interest and Tax

Dep       = Depreciation

CAPEX  = Capital Expenditure

∆WC      = Changes in Working Capital

The formula is simple but getting the right numbers to be inserted into the formula is not straight forward.  Thanks to Bursa Market Place (link), the official market info portal by Bursa Malaysia.  You can find financial data, technical chart, company rating, research report, and all other related financial info under one roof.  And it is free!

Let’s take one real world example, Top Glove.  The annual financial reports can be found in the following link.

1.      Annual Income Statement

a.      Web View

b.      Download Excel Spreadsheet

2.      Annual Balance Sheet

a.      Web View

b.      Download Excel Spreadsheet

3.      Annual Cash Flow Statement

a.      Web View

b.      Download Excel Spreadsheet

 

From the annual financial statement, the EBIT can be found in income statement on row Normalized EBIT.  Depreciation can be found in either income statement or cash flow statement, they are the same.


Tax rate, CAPEX, and Changes in working capital are a bit tricky.  You need to calculate them from financial statement rather than obtaining them directly.  Thanks to Bursa Market Place, you can download the financial statements in excel format and let the spreadsheet do the calculation for.

For tax rate, you can obtain it by dividing the Provision for Income Taxes with Net Income Before Taxes.  Both can be found in income statement.

For changes in working capital, it is a bit tricky but still be able to estimate from balance sheet.  The information you need are Total Current Assets, Total Current Liabilities, CASH AND SHORT TERM INVESTMENTS, Notes Payable/ Short Term Debt, and Current Port. Of LT Debt/Capital Leases.


Under normal condition, working capital is defined as current assets minus current liabilities.  However, for FCFF valuation purpose, we exclude cash and short term debt, please refer to this link for the rational.  Working capital can be computed as

Changes in working capital is simply this year working capital minus last year working capital.

For simplicity, CAPEX can be computed by using this year gross properties, plants, and equipment (PP&E) minus last year gross PP&E.  Please refer to the following link for detail in estimating CAPEX.

Now you have all the information to compute FCFF.  Try to build one using Excel or Google Sheet, and then compare your results with the following embedded Google Sheet.  Congratulations!  You are one step nearer to build your own DCF model.


Disclaimer:  The above analysis does not imply any buy or sell recommendation.  The author disclaims all liabilities arising from any use of the information contained in this article.

Disclosure: The author may have interest in the stocks of the companies in this article.

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