In a previous article dated 14-Apr-2020 (beginning of the Phase
3 MCO), the Generalized Logistic Function (GLF) model predicted the total case
of Covid-19 in Malaysia would be plateauing around 6200 cases by mid-June (Read
more here). Also, the daily new positive
cases would go below 50 by end of Phase 3 MCO (Read
more here).
Today is the end of Phase 3 MCO, and the daily new cases reported
was 31, whereas the past two days daily cases were at 40 and 38 respectively. This shows that the Covid-19 trend in
Malaysia is well predicted by the GLF model and fellow Malaysians are doing a
good job to flatten the curve!
Besides GLF, other method such as Susceptible-Infected Recovered
(SIR) is also a popular choice among scholars. The Data-Driven Innovation (DDI)
Lab of Singapore University of Technology and Design predicted that the
pandemic will be 97 per cent contained in Malaysia by May 7. It further predicted the figure will then
increase to 99 percent by May 20, with full containment on July 8 (Read
more here).
The prediction by DDI Lab using SIR model is pretty much in
line with GLF model prediction, which is still targeting the cumulative case to
be plateauing around 6200 by mid-June.
Based on the GLF model updated best-case scenario, by the end of
Phase 4 MCO (12-May-2020), the daily new cases would go below 10, entering the
single digit phase. This number is
derived purely using quantitative approach.
It does not factor in traffic movement (flight routes reopen), new
vaccine development and other qualitative measures such as reopening additional business sectors.
Hang in there, it is almost over. Please continue to Stay@Home for now!
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