Malaysia Covid-19 Forecast using Generalized Logistic Function (Updated 03-May-2020)

After some easing measurements were announced at the beginning of Phase 4 MCO, it seems like the daily new cases have been going up again.  Some argued that the higher cases may be due to imported cases.  Table 1 shows the breakdown of local and imported cases since 29 Apr 2020.

Table 1: Local and Import New Covid-19 Cases

Date	Local	Import
29-Apr-2020	22	72
30-Apr-2020	32	25
01-May-2020	57	12
02-May-2020	94	11
03-May-2020	70	52

The local new cases are trending upward since 29-Apr-2020 and slightly retreated on 03-May-2020.  To study the situation, let’s look at the rate of change curve.  Figure 1 shows the daily new cases plot, together with 7-days, 14-days and 21-days rate of change, exclude the imported cases.

Figure 1: Rate Of Change

While it is obvious that daily numbers have gone up, 7-days rate of change has also crept up.  Both the 14-days and 21-days rate of change is at the juncture of turning up again.  To get a clearer picture, let’s look at the 2^nd derivative of these plots.  Figure 2 is the 2^nd derivative of the rate of change.

Figure 2: 2^nd Derivative of Rate Of Change

 

7-days curve has crossed above the zero line.  While both 14-days and 21-days curve are still in the negative territory, they are approaching zero.  Once both cross above the zero line, it could mean that 2^nd wave is coming.

The data imply that something has fundamentally changed.  It could be due to more sectors have resumed work too early or people are lowering down their social distancing guard.

Take care.  Please continue to Stay@Home if possible!