Since the last update on 28 Apr 2020 (Read
more here), Malaysia has moved into the Conditional Movement Control Order
(CMCO) phase. Additional easings were
introduced, and more economy sectors are allowed to reopen with conditions.
Subsequently, the daily new Covid-19 cases in Malaysia is on
the uptrend again. The original Generalized
Logistic Function (GLF) is no longer adequate to predict the outcome as the
underlying conditions have changed.
As such, two sets of GLF are now needed to monitor the
situation. The first set of GLF will be
spanning from 24 Jan 2020 to 28 Apr 2020 (GLF pre-CMCO), while second set of
GLF will be starting from 29 Apr 2020 to the latest date (GLF CMCO).
The GLF pre-CMCO is using the original version GLF but the
new data feeding stopped at 28 Apr 2020.
Thus, the subsequent prediction was based on the actual data upto 28 Apr
2020. The GLF CMCO is forecasted based
on the derived CMCO daily data. The derived CMCO daily data is calculated by subtracting the actual daily data with GLF pre-CMCO
predicted data.
For example, on 29 Apr 2020, the actual daily new cases were
94, the GLF pre-CMCO predicted 44 cases on that day. Hence, the derived CMCO daily data would be
94 – 44 = 50. Figure
1 shows the derived CMCO daily cases and GLF CMCO daily cases. Figure 2 shows the 7-days rate of change for
the above-mentioned data.
Figure 1: Derived CMCO Daily New Cases
Figure 2: 7-Days Rate of Change for derived CMCO Daily New
Cases
Figure 3: Actual Daily, GLF pre-CMCO daily & GLF CMCO
daily data
Figure 3 shows the actual daily data, together with GLF pre-CMCO
and GLF CMCO prediction. As the 7-days
rate of change has no signs of slowing down, the GLF is predicting the trend
will keep moving up for now. If the
conditions do no improve in the next few weeks, the chances of the total cases hitting
10k are high as depicted in Figure 4.
Stay Safe!
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